Election 2012: Dems Pull Ahead in Key Senate Races

From Politico:

After no shortage of hand-wringing over Elizabeth Warren’s campaign, the Massachusetts Democrat has overtaken Brown in four consecutive polls.

After running behind in August, the former Harvard professor has pulled ahead of the freshman incumbent by 2 to 6 percentage points in surveys taken over the past two weeks. Her uptick came before any recalibration of her messaging — Schumer and other top Democrats urged her to hit Brown harder. But it did follow her prime-time convention speech, which helped lock down wavering Democrats as well as undecided voters who lean toward Obama.

“There are plenty of Democrats who like Scott Brown, but fewer are now willing to vote for him,” Public Policy Polling President Dean Debnam wrote in a memo on the race.

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In Wisconsin, liberal Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who trailed Tommy Thompson in five straight August polls, has now vaulted ahead of him in several surveys. Three separate polls have Baldwin either deadlocked with or ahead of the former four-time governor. A survey by Marquette University — which gained notoriety for correctly forecasting Gov. Scott Walker’s margin in the Wisconsin recall — put Baldwin up by a jarring 9 points.

 While Republicans dismiss that margin, Thompson has been carpet-bombed on the airwaves this month. Thompson’s campaign has been largely dark as it replenished a diminished war chest from a grueling August primary. Baldwin and her allies have saturated the airwaves with $4.6 million in TV and radio ads, versus $2.5 million from Thompson and his allies since the Aug. 14 primary.

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Even in Virginia — the race that has cemented itself as the most consistently competitive in the country — daylight has started to emerge for Democrats.

Tim Kaine, the former governor and onetime head of the Democratic National Committee, has carved out a lead against former Sen. George Allen.

A pair of polls from The Washington Post and Quinnipiac University had Kaine ahead of Allen by 7 and 8 points, making it five straight polls showing a lead for the Democrat.